Hossein Salami, head of the world’s leading terrorist organization, is at room temperature. Donald Trump took out Qasem Soleimani, the previous leader of Iran’s terrorist Revolutionary Guards Corps, in 2020. On Friday the 13th of June 2025, Israel erased Soleimani’s successor Salami, along with military generals, political leaders, and nuclear scientists. The latter join at least seven other scientists Israel hit in the previous decade. Iranian nuclear physicists exhibit short half-lives.
The day after Trump announced the successful conclusion of trade talks with China, Israel launched against Iran. Was this coincidence? China and Iran are allied in desiring to destroy America. America and Israel seek to neutralize their joint enemies. An Israeli attack on Iran could have sidetracked efforts to conclude Chinese trade negotiations.
On June 4, Trump relayed a message to Iran through Putin: his patience was exhausted and Iran better not target American regional assets. Putin, anxious to trade help with Iran for Trump’s assistance in ending its Ukraine war, has volunteered to take custody of Iran’s highly-enriched uranium. The weekend before Israel attacked, Trump made a rare Camp David visit to huddle with Vance, Rubio, Hegseth, and military chiefs, minimizing the potential for leaks from that remote location. American non-essential staff were then evacuated from our Baghdad embassy, along with our dependents in the region.
The Israeli attack began with decapitation strikes to take out key Iranian leaders (military and political) before targeting nuclear installations. Israel followed the pattern it used in recent months to target Hamas and Hezb’allah leaders. We also targeted Houthi officials during the successful drive to get them to cease attacks on shipping earlier this year. A little-noticed aspect of the Signalgate affair was that it revealed CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s comment that if action against the Houthis was delayed a month, better intelligence could be acquired for targeting their leaders. The Houthis haven’t advertised how many of their leaders were eliminated, but it’s likely substantial and why they quickly cried uncle and abandoned their attacks.
On March 7, Trump gave Iran two months to come to the table by May 7. Did they think he was bluffing? They dawdled three months and found out he wasn’t. On March 15, Operation Rough Rider began, accelerating the tempo of attacks on Iran’s Houthi proxies. It concluded the day before Trump’s May 7 deadline, when the Houthis surrendered. In April, Trump threatened Iran with “bombing the likes of which they have never seen before” if it failed to destroy its nuclear program and cease supporting proxy regional militias. Trump’s prediction has now been confirmed.
Trump repeatedly emphasized that Iran could choose the hard or easy path. Why didn’t they cooperate? Probably because their nuclear program provided a false sense of security from attack by Israel, the United States, or regional Sunni Muslim Arab states. Forfeiting their nuclear ambitions would have essentially been surrendering. Perhaps most of all, Iran’s leaders fear their restive citizens. They retain power only by exercising extreme repression. Signing away their nukes would signal weakness to their domestic opposition, anxious to revolt against their tyrants. Regime change now comes to the fore.
costs associated with disciplining the Houthis, which ran around $1 billion. Since 9/11, we’ve poured over $8 trillion into the Global War on Terror, including over $2 trillion budgeted for care of wounded veterans. We’ve incurred over 60,000 casualties, including over 7,000 deaths, prosecuting the GWOT.
Trump deliberately avoided visiting Israel while recently in its neighborhood. Doing so would have been needlessly provocative and pointless. He already met twice in Washington with Netanyahu earlier this year. Once Israel attacked Iran, Trump’s first response was to inform Iran they could still take the easy path and warned them not to target Americans in that region. Whether American bombers will be required to drop the heaviest bunker buster bombs to finish off Iran’s underground nuclear facilities remains to be seen. These bombers were positioned offshore from Iran in the Indian Ocean by early April. On May 8, the day after Trump’s deadline, B-52s were added to the fleet, underscoring to Iran that the window for negotiations was closing.
In February, promptly after inauguration, Trump shipped 1,800 2000 lb. unguided bunker buster bombs to Israel, some of which were used in Gaza. These MK-84 bombs can penetrate 11 feet of concrete. Our heaviest munitions weigh 30,000 lb. and can penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete, or do a serious number on Iran’s hardened nuclear sites inside mountains. B-2s and B-52s are required to drop these precision-guided weapons.
Trump hopes to avoid the need for piling on the Israeli attack, hence his carrot/stick declaration as soon as Israel launched. It’s the same approach he’s used since early March. The door is wide open for Iran’s capitulation. Now that Iran’s military staff is decapitated, it remains to be seen if it takes the offer. Trump, within hours of the Israeli attack, declared, “I gave them a 60-day warning and today is day 61. …the people I was dealing with are dead, the hardliners. … [Iran should] “make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire.” A passive/aggressive twist on the Art of the Deal, Iranian style.
From the larger perspective, we are witnessing friction between an ascendant American civilization and the weak embers of collapsed empires — a caliphate and imperial China. Iran and China invested decades and billions into internally sabotaging America. Riots in our cities are the fruits. Both nations seek to recapture the faded glory of ancestral civilizations. They’re learning that won’t happen and the associated costs are unbearable. History’s dust is settling, leaving America alone atop the global stage.
Iranian retribution against Israel is probably more for domestic consumption than serious efforts. Its October 7, 2023 attack was for naught, marking the beginning of the regime’s end. Launching over 300 drones and missiles at Israel in April 2024 proved an expensive, embarrassing dud. Trump recently diverted 20,000 anti-drone missiles intended for Ukraine to the Middle East.
Last July, after Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in his Tehran hotel, Ayatollah Khamenei officiated at the funeral. Your Favorite Ayatollah kept glancing nervously skyward while officiating, not because he feared Allah. Israel established it can strike anywhere within Iran. That message was just amplified. The initial attacks yielded no reports of Israeli jet losses. Next comes regime change. The Iranian revolution’s 50th birthday is in February 2029. Trump’s term ends the previous month. Don’t bet on the ayatollahs making it to 50. They’re getting proficient at losing.
Douglas Schwartz blogs on history and gaslighting at The Great Class War.
Image: K5okc
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