As another carrier strike group steams to the Middle East and F-35 squadrons position themselves in the region with tankers, the American people should think hard about whether President Donald Trump is allowing the Middle East to overshadow blinking red priorities in the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing has systematically exploited America’s Middle East quagmires, turning each crisis into a strategic windfall. The Trump administration now faces a critical choice: de-escalate Middle East tensions or watch China continue capitalizing on Washington’s undisciplined policymaking.
The symbolism of diverting military assets to the Middle East is not lost on Beijing or American allies in the Indo-Pacific. Among audiences where policy statements about freedom of navigation fall flat, U.S. force deployments speak volumes. The Biden and Trump administrations’ Red Sea campaign demonstrated costly strategic overextension for little discernible gain and contributed to a lack of cohesion between the United States and its European and Arab allies in the post-Oct. 7 crisis.
A U.S. destroyer in the Eastern Mediterranean, ostensibly conducting maritime security missions, may be viewed globally as the United States co-signing Israel’s devastating Gaza campaign. China has not missed these costs to America’s reputation and prestige. Beijing leverages each perceived misstep to advance its narrative that U.S. leadership is both hypocritical, destabilizing, and declining — costs that multiply if the United States intervenes even in defense of vital national interests.
Looming over the ongoing war between Israel and Iran is a potential threat to the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian blockade of this critical energy corridor would force Trump to reconsider a defensive posture.
Beijing has built the capabilities to benefit from, rather than resolve, regional crises. China’s military base in Djibouti, rotating naval escort task forces, and modernized military capabilities are intended to enable “far seas” power projection as part of Beijing’s vision of a China-leaning Eurasian continent.
During the Red Sea crisis, China demonstrated its approach: cutting deals with the Houthis — whom it has supported with arms sales and dual-use components — for safe passage of Chinese vessels while the United States and United Kingdom conducted costly military operations.
China’s approach to any escalation in the Middle East reflects its broader strategy of free-riding on U.S. security commitments. The region’s largest consumer of oil, Beijing receives over half of its energy supplies from the Middle East. In March 2025, amid heightened nuclear tensions, China joined Iran and Russia in the seventh Maritime Security Belt naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman. While the Chinese navy likely has not trained to substitute for U.S. operations in a Strait of Hormuz scenario, Beijing would happily free-ride on American defense of the global commons rather than precipitate great power confrontation or risk oil supplies. All the while, China will continue shaping the strategic information environment at America’s expense.
The post-Oct. 7 crisis has become another vehicle for China’s campaign against U.S. global leadership. Beijing has long cultivated a “friends with benefits” relationship with Tehran and its proxies, enabling Iran to evade international sanctions through illicit oil purchases while furnishing Iran’s increasingly sophisticated arsenal — critical for Tehran’s regional proxy network. Clearly China isn’t displeased to see America occupied in the Middle East.
Trump’s handling of the Israeli-Iranian conflict will determine whether his administration breaks this cycle of distraction or deepens it. Israel appears to be looking at strategic aims that extend well past deterring Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and Trump may be encouraging Netanyahu’s maximalist approach. The challenge for Trump lies in how he achieves his stated preference for ending the conflict and preventing a prolonged regional war or a civil war in a collapsed Iran. An Asia-first approach — embraced by numerous Trump officials and centered on the China challenge — makes limiting America’s military commitments in the Middle East and prioritizing conflict resolution there essential. U.S. leadership on display in the Middle East, the prevailing theater for American foreign policy over two decades, shapes outcomes well beyond the region, including Chinese and allied calculations about U.S. resolve in the Indo-Pacific.
Trump would be prudent to learn from recent experience, including that of his first administration: Every Middle East crisis that consumes American attention and resources hands Beijing strategic advantages.
Adham Sahloul was a special advisor in the Biden administration and served at the Pentagon and the U.S. Agency for International Development. He is an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
Image: Ali Khamenei via Wikimedia Commons
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